Archive for the ‘Business’ Category

Advice for Entrepreneurs

Posted on June 29th, 2008 in Business | No Comments »

Fred Wilson has a great post up about macro trends and their impact on VC and startups. The paragraph that jumped out at me was the following:

And I don’t think the startup economy and venture capital is immune to this new reality.

So what should we do about it? Well first, we need to be careful with valuations. If financial assets are going to be subject to downward pressure then inflated valuations will not be sustainable. We need to be careful with the amount of money we invest and burn. Companies that are capital efficient and cash flow positive will fare better in this environment. And we need to be prepared to wait a long time for liquidity.

In my mind, the critical challenge facing anyone starting a company is how to get it to be self-sustaining as quickly as possible while using as little capital as possible along the way. Balancing growth with capital conservation is a great example of the line that needs to be walked between goals that can seem to be in opposition to each other. I’ll write more about this particular issue in another post because it comes up again and again. In the meanwhile, good luck with your respective businesses.

Starting from scratch - it’s different this time

Posted on March 4th, 2008 in Business, Personal | 4 Comments »

I’ve been in and around startups for a while now but even though I’ve been at the ‘idea on paper’ stage for one of them, and have been a key part of the team at others, I’ve never been the final resting place for the proverbial buck. It’s different this time.

The level of pressure, and as a result the required level of commitment shoots through the roof. The only way to cope is to be prepared every day and work your ass off. The good news is that this is easy to do. When you’re invested in the idea and vested in the outcome, you don’t think twice about putting in the time needed to achieve your goals.

Doing Business In India - Some things to keep in mind

Posted on February 13th, 2008 in Business, Personal, Uncategorized | 3 Comments »

Q: Hey Rahul - thanks for joining Askablogr! I saw your post about your recent India trip and was curious: do you have any specific strategy tips for U.S. managers wanting to tap the Indian market?

Posted by Chris DeVore

A: Great question Chris. Also, I’m looking forward to trying out the Askablogr service. A few things jump out when thinking about tapping into a different markets.

 

  1. Get a local contact you can trust:While it’s valuable to have an outsider’s perspective, I think it’s very important to also have good, trusted local contacts. Each country has a different tempo and there’s the official way things get done and the real way. It really helps to have someone you trust helping you manage relationships on the ground. 
  2. Understand Local Nuances:Porting business models is tempting, but it’s important to also understand where things are different from what you’re used to. India’s consumer web use is still largely metered and dialup based. Also, more and more people are using their phones as their primary point of connectivity. This has major implications for how you might choose to do business. Another point that came up on my trip - copyright law. India’s copyright on things like movies is 30 years shorter than that of the USA. If you’re in the content business, you’ve got to understand this.
  3. Be Patient:With any new endeavor, there will be obstacles. I think all the complexity is amplified when you’re going international. India will be a pretty big challenge from anyone moving from the USA. Having said that, the growth out there is insane and as you’d expect, infrastructure is straining to keep up. I think it’s a market that you can’t afford to ignore. Going global is similar to a local site in the US going national. Go market by market - establish a beach-head, build critical mass, repeat.

I came back from my trip pretty inspired by what I saw and also very aware that the pace of change out there can only mean increased competition here. It’s definitely a fun time to be doing business.

How to recruit in the age of social media…

Posted on February 6th, 2008 in Business, Cool | No Comments »

There’s a great post on Redeye VC about targeting ads at employees of big Internet companies. While Josh Kopelman was focused on finding ex-employees interested in  starting a company, his approach (which is very clever and like most good ideas ‘duh-inducing’) strikes me as a great way for recently funded startups to find disgruntled developer talent.

I decided to test Facebook’s targeting mechanism by running targeted ads to employees of large Internet companies — including Yahoo and Microsoft.

In Seattle, if you’re looking for .NET talent, poaching from Microsoft is a way of life and buying employer-targeted ads on Facebook and LinkedIn might be a great way to go.

Thanks for a great post, Josh.

Think Global

Posted on February 5th, 2008 in Business | 4 Comments »

I just got back from a week-long trip to India and I was blown away  by how much growth the country is experiencing. The economy is booming and there’s opportunity everywhere. Infrastructure is straining to keep up - there’s traffic everywhere, airports are clogged, streets are crowded, there’s advertising everywhere you look - in short, the country is going nuts.

Traffic in Kolkata

Going from the US, where the talk around the economy is so negative, to India where most people are making hay, made the contrast even more jarring. There’s a sense of optimism overseas which is pretty inspiring. If you’re not thinking about how you can leverage assets overseas or how global consumers are relevant to what you’re trying to do, you’re missing out on tremendous potential.

On an unrelated note, a ton of people I spoke to out there view the current situation in the US (declining stock markets, real estate prices, subprime meltdown) as a buying opportunity. I don’t know if this is a bottom yet (actually, I’m pretty sure it’s not) but if you can be a buyer when everyone else is selling, in general, that’s probably a good thing.

How to make money in sub-prime mortgages

Posted on January 13th, 2008 in Business | 4 Comments »

Just about everywhere you look, you see how the US mortgage meltdown is negatively affecting everything connected to it. Even in this market though, people are killing it. The Wall Street Journal has a fascinating article about Magnetar and the handsome profits it made betting against the mortgage market. WSJ Online (Reg Required): A Fund Behind Astronomical Losses by Serena Ng and Carrick Mollenkamp

In this case, Magnetar swooped in on securities that it believed could become troubled but were paying big returns. CDOs are sliced based on risk, with the riskiest pieces having the highest yield but the greatest chance of losing value. Less-risky pieces have lower yields and some pieces were once considered so safe that they paid only a bit more than a U.S. Treasury bond. 

 

Magnetar helped to spawn CDOs by buying the riskiest slices of the instruments, which paid returns of around 20% during good times, according to people familiar with its strategy. Back in 2006, when Magnetar began investing, these were the slices Wall Street found hardest to sell because they would be the first to lose money if subprime defaults rose. For the Wall Street firms underwriting the deals, selling the riskiest pieces was “critical to getting the deals done because they were designed to act as a cushion for other investors,” says Eileen Murphy, principal at Excelsior CDO Advisors LLC, a structured-finance consultancy.

 

Magnetar then hedged its holdings by betting against the less-risky slices of some of these same securities as well as other CDOs, according to people familiar with its strategy. While it lost money on many of the risky slices it bought, it made far more when its hedges paid off as the market collapsed in the second half of last year.

 

Wall Street, on the other hand, is reeling. Investment banks made big fees by underwriting Magnetar-linked CDOs, but several banks made the costly mistake of holding some of the higher-rated and supposedly less risky pieces of these investments. 

 

 As the article points out, Magnetar’s strategy would have worked whichever way the mortgage market went. They had downside protection and then some in the case of a downturn, but if the market held up, they owned the slices of the market with the best returns. Very impressive.It also highlights the information advantage that insiders have. There’s no way individual investors could have this sort of insight and then act on it. One lesson here, if you’re not intimately familiar with a market, be wary of easy money.

What’s your 75 year marketing plan?

Posted on December 25th, 2007 in Business | 4 Comments »

Alison sent me an article which contained a pointer a piece called “Have You Ever Tried to Sell a Diamond?” by Edward Jay Epstein in the Atlantic Monthly in 1982 that completely blew me away. It talks about the birth of the modern diamond trade and the moves made by DeBeers to not only control supply, but also to create demand.

If you’re interested at all in competitive strategy and how consumer perception is shaped, it’s a must read. Integrated marketing at it’s finest - product placements in Hollywood & even the British Royal Family, full color advertising, information bulletins to newspapers, you name it, they did it. Did it work? You be the judge:

By 1979, N. W. Ayer had helped De Beers expand its sales of diamonds in the United States to more than $2.1 billion, at the wholesale level, compared with a mere $23 million in 1939. In forty years, the value of its sales had increased nearly a hundredfold. The expenditure on advertisements, which began at a level of only $200,000 a year and gradually increased to $10 million, seemed a brilliant investment.

Essentially, the discovery of massive mines in South Africa in 1870 threatened the collapse of the diamond industry and in response, British financiers combined their holdings to form DeBeers Consolidated Mines Ltd., in 1888. In 1938, Harry Oppenheimer (son of the founder of DeBeers) traveled to retain N. W. Ayer, a leading advertising agency, to “persuade Americans to buy more expensive diamonds.”

Although it could do little about the state of the economy, N. W. Ayer suggested that through a well-orchestrated advertising and public-relations campaign it could have a significant impact on the “social attitudes of the public at large and thereby channel American spending toward larger and more expensive diamonds instead of “competitive luxuries.” Specifically, the Ayer study stressed the need to strengthen the association in the public’s mind of diamonds with romance. Since “young men buy over 90% of all engagement rings” it would be crucial to inculcate in them the idea that diamonds were a gift of love: the larger and finer the diamond, the greater the expression of love. Similarly, young women had to be encouraged to view diamonds as an integral part of any romantic courtship.

They also created a market for diamonds among long-standing married couples:

In America, which remained the most important market for most of De Beer’s diamonds, N. W. Ayer recognized the need to create a new demand for diamonds among long-married couples. “Candies come, flowers come, furs come,” but such ephemeral gifts fail to satisfy a woman’s psychological craving for “a renewal of the romance,” N. W. Ayer said in a report. An advertising campaign could instill the idea that the gift of a second diamond, in the later years of marriage, would be accepted as a sign of “ever-growing love.” In 1962, N. W. Ayer asked for authorization to “begin the long-term process of setting the diamond aside as the only appropriate gift for those later-in-life occasions where sentiment is to be expressed.” De Beers immediately approved the campaign.

Until the mid-sixties, bigger was better in the diamond business, but the emergence of a huge quantity of Soviet supply in the small diamond market forced DeBeers to change this perception.

De Beers ordered N. W. Ayer to reverse one of its themes: women were no longer to be led to equate the status and emotional commitment to an engagement with the sheer size of the diamond. A “strategy for small diamond sales” was outlined, stressing the “importance of quality, color and cut” over size. Pictures of “one quarter carat” rings would replace pictures of “up to 2 carat” rings. Moreover, the advertising agency began in its international campaign to “illustrate gems as small as one-tenth of a carat and give them the same emotional importance as larger stones.” The news releases also made clear that women should think of diamonds, regardless of size, as objects of perfection: a small diamond could be as perfect as a large diamond.

In addition, to driving demand, N. W. Ayer also convinced people to never sell their diamonds. This was a crucial component of maintaining high diamond prices.

The moment a significant portion of the public begins selling diamonds from this inventory, the price of diamonds cannot be sustained. For the diamond invention to survive, the public must be inhibited from ever parting with its diamonds. In developing a strategy for De Beers in 1953, N. W. Ayer said: “In our opinion old diamonds are in ’safe hands’ only when widely dispersed and held by individuals as cherished possessions valued far above their market price.” As far as De Beers and N. W. Ayer were concerned, “safe hands” belonged to those women psychologically conditioned never to sell their diamonds.

What’s amazing to me is that DeBeers & N. W. Ayer didn’t just define what diamonds mean to a generation, they redefined it over and over again. As soon as someone gets engaged, the first question that’s asked concerns the diamond and the ring. These ideas are so deeply programmed into us, that we don’t even stop to ask why.

Seth Godin also has a post up about this notion called What Does Santa Look Like? His point - “We’re told what to believe” - is spot on.

There’s a tendency in technology markets to focus on the mousetrap and not on the psychology and perceptions of the customer. This is limited thinking. You have to understand your customer and make sure you’re satisfying emotional as well as practical needs.

DeBeers & N. W. Ayer understood this and they’ve shaped global thinking on this issue for a century. No matter what you think of the diamond industry, as a business person, you can’t help but be blown away by the long-range thinking and the strategy and it’s execution.

Kudos to Amazon - Great Design on their Product Review Pages

Posted on December 6th, 2007 in Business, Judy's Book, Product | 2 Comments »

Amazon is doing a great job of highlighting relevant content on their user review pages. This is something we strived for at Judy’s Book but never quite nailed.

When there is a profileration of content, people want to know what’s most relevant. This is a natural response to information overload. On a site where there are a lot of reviews, you want to know which reviews you should pay attention to. (At this point, the great Princess Bride quote: “You truly have a dizzying intellect,” is probably coming to mind but bear with me.)

At Judy’s Book, we typically listed reviews in reverse chronological order and displayed the TrustScore of the user. This was a useful proxy but it didn’t really capture whether other people found the review helpful. It wasn’t a true content quality score. Rather, it measured the credibility of the individual posting the review. This is useful and valuable, but doesn’t really address the review. I was trusted on Judy’s Book, but I know nothing about kid-friendly restaurants. There’s no way I could have written useful reviews in that domain.

The challenge with trying to get a quality assessment is that the percentage of users that will rate something is relatively low. As a result, you need a lot of traffic to make meaningful assessments.

Amazon nails this. Their product review page does a fantastic job of summarizing what’s relevant for a potential customer.

Amazon Product Review Page

They don’t just show the average rating, they show the distribution. This isn’t a new feature. What I love is they highlight the positive and critical reviews that users have found useful. This is awesome. It let’s you see at a glance the most relevant information and gives a user comfort that they are getting the information they need to make a decision.

I love that Amazon displays the critical review as well. This has two big benefits. First, it feels authentic - no product is perfect; seeing the good and the bad lets you evaluate whether its failings are ones that will bother you. Second, even if a customer doesn’t buy this product, they will view Amazon as a place that makes it easy for them to make a good decision. They will either buy something else this session, or they’ll come back in the future.

This is a great example of taking a long view about customer satisfaction and hats off to Amazon. I’ve blogged about them before and remain impressed. Another area where they are doing a killer job is web services, but more on that later.

Related Posts:

Sometimes, being frugal will bite you in the ass

Posted on December 6th, 2007 in Business, Leadership | 3 Comments »

In general, in startups, spending money carefully is a good thing. Cash is the lifeblood of any company and spending it wisely is critical. Having said that, there are areas where you should be prepared to spend because your business depends on it. It doesn’t pay to be too cheap when it comes to your attorney, your hosting & infrastructure and most of all, your people. Identify the critical elements of your business and spend appropriately in those areas. Be as cheap as possible everywhere else.Don’t get me wrong, you have to spend money slowly, but if saving a little today costs you a lot tomorrow, you’re making a bad decision.  

Awesome Post on User Acquisition by Andrew Chen

Posted on November 23rd, 2007 in Business, Product, Technology, Viral | No Comments »

Andrew Chen has a great post on his blog entitled “Why Bloggers and Press Don’t Matter for User Acquisition.” I often find myself nodding as I read his posts and this one is no exception. Press & Blogger buzz while it drives traffic, often has no connection whatsoever to driving users and user engagement.User acquisition is a critical part of any startup’s evolution and it’s surprising how often entrepreneurs can fall into the ‘build it and they will come’ mindset. I was at an event recently where a handful of startups were presenting their companies to a panel of VCs and CEOs. After one pitch, a panel asked the entrepreneur what his customer acquisition strategy was - “How are you going to get people to use your product?” The response was along the lines of - “Well, they just need to try it out and they’ll love it.” Unfortunately, he didn’t have a good answer as to how they were going to hear about it in the first place.You need a clear user acquisition strategy and Andrew has laid out a useful framework for thinking about it. He also has other great post on Viral Loops and social network monetization. Happy reading.

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